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Outcome
Open Outcome

Prediction markets are information machines

What does the
world believe?

See what a market expected at a particular moment, then examine the trades behind it.

Open Outcome Explore a market
A question about the economy

Market price history

US recession by end of 2026?

YES share prices, shown as implied probability.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Historical YES share prices, shown as implied probability on an actual time axis and a zero to one hundred percent scale. Polymarket is a solid blue line. Kalshi is a solid green line. Lines connect actual recorded observations, including across missing days. No estimated prices are added. During comparison, each source shows its nearest recorded observation within eighteen hours of the selected time and inside its own recorded coverage. Otherwise it shows no observation. Tap the chart or focus it and use the arrow keys to compare recorded prices. Home and End select the first and last recorded times. Tap the selected point again or press Escape to return to the latest prices.

Loading market history.

Polymarket · Market & resolution criteria Kalshi · Market & resolution criteria

Return to a moment

Compare what traders expected before and after an event.

Look at the evidence

Inspect the trading behind a change, then test your own explanation.

Share what you learn

Keep charts, notes, and sources together in a notebook others can read.

For developers

Take the data further.

Use the API to bring market history into your own research tools and agents.

Read the API docs
View an API example

-- What do the most active markets believe?

SELECT
  title,
  round(yes_price * 100, 1) AS probability
FROM markets
WHERE status = 'open'
ORDER BY volume_24h DESC
LIMIT 5
SQL OVER HTTPPOST /v1/execute

About Outcome

Talk to us
What does a market price tell me?

Prices reflect what traders will pay for an outcome. The trade history shows how that price changed, how much traded, and when. It cannot tell you why each person traded.

Can I look back in time?

Yes. Filter trades by time to compare prices before and after an event, or follow a market through resolution. Available history varies by dataset. See the schema documentation for details.

Do I need to know SQL?

You can write SQL yourself or ask the assistant to draft a query. Review and edit it in the workspace.

Can I share my research?

Yes. Publish a read-only notebook link or invite people to view, comment, or edit. A notebook can include your text, charts, and tables.

How does usage work?

Queries use credits. The workspace shows your usage and costs. You can set spending limits and a budget for each API key.

Have a question in mind?

Open Outcome